Taiwan’s Economy Under Ma Ying-jeou, More Smoke and Mirrors?
Jerome F. Keating Ph.D.
Long time observers of Ma Ying-jeou know him as a man who depends totally on image and talks out of both sides of his mouth, for this reason they watch the result of his actions and ignore his words. For example he constantly tries to promote the carrot that China will save Taiwan. Forget the fact that the Chinese dumped poisoned milk products etc. on Taiwan. Forget that 6-3-3 was based on the China premise. Forget the fact that the great China tourist influx failed to materialize, and that even the few tourists that came, how shall we put it, were cheap and spent little to help Taiwan’s economy being outspent by far by the polite Japanese and even the Koreans where efforts should have gone. But let us focus on Ma’s continued cross-strait promises. China will save Taiwan says Ma; Taiwan must not be left behind. Unfortunately reality continues to conflict with promise. Ma states that he will not go into political discussions with China; he will only discuss the economy. Can they be separated? Read this as Ma saying, wait until I have given the nation’s economic and military strength away, then when it is too late, I will discuss politics.
Yet, buoyed with Ma’s smoke and mirror promises, Taiwan’s news media, unquestioning sheep that they are, are now full of how Ma’s cross-strait economic deals with China will bring wealth; in particular they are pushing up the market price of housing all around the island. Economic salvation, this sounds good right? Good if you have property to sell. But what if you don’t? Then Ma’s words are a simple formula for the rich to get richer, and the poor to get poorer. Ask which party controls the majority of Taiwan’s assets and re-examine the recent housing news?
For example in the Da-an area (one of the richest areas of Taipei) the peak price of housing last year was NT$828,000 per ping. This year with the anticipation of Ma’s promised blind, non-transparent ECFA (soon to be signed) the price has moved up to NT$908,000 per ping and next year it is anticipated to be NT$1 million per ping. Prices are going to rise all around the island as well. All well and good if you have property to sell, but what if you don’t? What if you want to buy? Other questions follow.
For those that sell, where will they move to? A smaller city on the island? The countryside? Or perhaps, like some of Taiwan’s ex-legislators and politicians they plan to move to the USA or Canada where more house can be bought for the dollar. If so, then who will they sell this rich Taiwan real estate to?
Who is going to be able to afford this high-priced housing? Not your average Taiwanese, no it will be the rich Chinese from across the Strait. The same scenario happened with Hong Kong housing. Now the rub begins to be felt and the shallowness of Ma’s promises of wealth begins to come clear. Read further.
Another recent item in the news was a list of the top ten complaints that Taiwanese had against their current situation. Guess what number one complaint in the survey was? The high cost of housing. Say what? The top complaint of Taiwanese who are already feeling the pinch of the economy is the high cost of housing? This is all the more a problem for a young couple, wanting to get their first home. It does not take a rocket scientist or a smart economist to put all these recent facts together.
As Ma works his great deals to make Taiwan dependent on China, where is the benefit? The few rich will get richer but which political party is the richest party in Taiwan? What about the average person or the poor? Sorry the average Taiwanese will only get poorer. So what can Taiwanese hope for under Ma? Well they can hope that their new Chinese landlord will be nice and not charge them too high a rent. And then that is the point, where Ma may say he will talk politics with China.
Other writings can be found at http://zen.sandiego.edu:8080/
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